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Cube action at the score?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 10 August 2026, at 2:10 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action at the score? (John O'Hagan)

If White passes she's 9-away Crawford. That's an MWC of ~7%. Take, recube and win to get to 75%; lose for the match. 7%/75% ~9% cGWC needed to Take.

I get Blue's EPC at 25.1 using Art Benjamin's Modified Matusek. White's EPC calculation goes all the way back to Trice's BG Boot Camp and is 29. I think Art says for these situations, White's cGWC in percent is about 21 - 2*difference = 21 - 2*4 = 13. From Blue's PoV that's 87% wins.

If I'm right, White's Take is clear. But what about the double?

Assuming White will Take, if Blue doubles and it works (i.e. he wins) his MWC goes from 93% to 100%, a gain of 7%. If it doesn't work (i.e. he loses the game) it goes from 76% to 25%, a loss of 51%. Thus he needs 51/(7 + 51) = 51/58 = (1 - 7/58) ~88%.

Since Blue wins only 87% this looks like it's ND+T.

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