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Position of the Day 08-04-26 - 3a 4a Cube Action

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 18 August 2026, at 4:20 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 08-04-26 - 3a 4a Cube Action (Stick)

Is it a Take? Takepoint is 18.6% between equal bot-like players. Blue fans 9/36 = 25% of the time, hits in White's HB 12/36 ~ 33%, hits on Blue's acept 9/36 = 25%, thus enters without hitting the remainder 6/36 ~17%. Those rolls are {16,34,14}. 16 in particular is almost as bad as fanning. White appears to have quite a bit of play, some even if she gets hit immediately. Take.

Is it a Double? That kills Blue's gammon equity against all but the weakest opponents (yes, they exist, at local clubs and online). That seems like a lot to risk. On Blue's best sequences he can play on for the G, and his worst sequences he's glad he didn't double. In between are situations where he can double next turn (or later) and not lose much market, if any. Doesn't seem worth it to me.

ND+T.

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