I was curious how some other plays looked to XG, and didn't want to waste time with a rollout. Stick already hit the high points. Summary here is that as long as you make start with 20/18(2) it's difficult to screw up. (And who plays 7/3 or 6/2 anyway?) Top seven plays do this before the double HB point move. It is interesting that this latter mentioned play is considerably worse with the 3-ply rollout, and it's 3.5 standard deviation significant (i.e. a difference of 0.050 compared to 0.025). Shows the value of a 3-ply rollout even for this seemingly straightforward position. And it doesn't make me any less uneasy when people use their phone app to decide....
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 7/5 6/4 | eq: -0.190 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.62% (G:2.75% B:0.06%)
56.38% (G:2.25% B:0.08%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 7/5(2) | eq: -0.196 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.47% (G:2.72% B:0.06%)
56.53% (G:2.23% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 13/11(2) | eq: -0.197 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.45% (G:2.27% B:0.06%)
56.55% (G:1.86% B:0.06%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 6/4(2) | eq: -0.197 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.42% (G:2.39% B:0.05%)
56.58% (G:1.98% B:0.06%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 8/4 | eq: -0.199 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.31% (G:2.38% B:0.05%)
56.69% (G:1.99% B:0.06%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 8/6 7/5 | eq: -0.203 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.22% (G:2.56% B:0.06%)
56.78% (G:2.26% B:0.09%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 6/2 | eq: -0.213 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.94% (G:2.41% B:0.04%)
57.06% (G:2.21% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller++ | 7/5(2) 6/4(2) | eq: -0.215 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.44% (G:4.63% B:0.09%)
57.56% (G:3.14% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 9. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 7/3 | eq: -0.219 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.75% (G:2.46% B:0.04%)
57.25% (G:2.37% B:0.08%) | |
|
| 10. | XG Roller++ | 20/18(2) 7/5 3/1 | eq: -0.224 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.59% (G:3.19% B:0.04%)
57.41% (G:3.15% B:0.14%) | |
|
