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Position of the Day 08-21-26 - Go big or go home?
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 08-21-26 - Go big or go home? (Stick)
Date: Saturday, 5 September 2026, at 7:22 p.m.
25/21* and then 6/5* or 3/2.
6/5 offers White 21/36 shots {3's, 5's, 44}. 3/2 offers 17/36 shots. (Art Benjamin has a formula for this. If 'e' and 'h' are the single die numbers needed to enter one and hit elsewhere respectively, start with 2*e*h. Then count all the (single) dice which are common to both the e set and the h set; call that 'n'. Subtract n^2. Finally, add rolls that enter on an empty point and then advance to hit. In this case e = h = 3, n = 1 (since 4 is in both), and there are no empty enter + advance-hit rolls. 2*3*3 - 1^2 = 17.)
The blot count isn't close, 3 for the double hit and 1 for the lift play. If the hit is in Blue's homeboard, Blue can anchor with 4's and usually with {31,22}. If the hit is is on White's side Blue gets the same rolls to return hit.
In either case White fans with 9/36 rolls, but will have entered with the other 27/36 for the lift play compared to only 9/36 for the double hit (i.e., still having one on the bar the remaining 50% of the time).
And don't forget that checker lifted 3/2 is never going to be useful the remainder of the game.
Hitting a second checker makes it harder for White to make that particular advanced anchor, but White may not even need an anchor. Blue's has good home-side builder distribution and if he can get that last checker around, White's future hitting chances aren't going to be great.
Double hitting leads to more gammons by both sides. Only White can use the cube; does the threat of getting cubed out favor one play over the other? It would seem (to me) to favor the single blot play. Throw in Magriel's Safe-vs-Bold Criteria which favors 3/2. QF says hit 6/5*, but I'm not finding strong enough arguments to back that up.
25/21*, 3/2.
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