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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 08-23-26
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 08-23-26 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 9 September 2026, at 3:47 p.m.
Let's start by counting shots. 8/1* leaves {all 1's plus 44} = 12/36. 8/2 (with either 3/2 or 6/5) leaves {all 1's plus 43} = 13/36 shots. 13/6 leaves the usual 17/36 shots.
The 8/2 plays have a couple significant disadvantages compared to 13/6:
A) If a blot gets hit this turn, Blue's continued possession of the midpoint leads to more gammon wins for White and she will often play on for these in many of those cases;
B) Getting missed often doesn't solve Blue's problems, compared to having the midpoint evacuation initiated.
Does hitting on the acepoint gain gammon wins for Blue? Maybe, but if White fans (and those are a major part of Blue's gammon win equity) the acepoint still needs to be covered, the midpoint cleared, and even with all that Blue's 4-pt is still usually left open, making gammon wins for him not so likely.
Choosing a play that leaves four or five more shots when getting hit is deadly is seldom right. But if you naively think of getting hit on the acept while keeping the midpoint is a 1.5 factor in the negative direction then the 12 blot loose hit play is elevated to 18, making the decision between 8/1* and 13/6 a lot closer.
If this were a pure play now or play later situation it likely would result in 'later'. Between the two minimalization of blot plays I'll go with the single blot 8/2, 5/4. But that still leaves the bigger question. White appears to have a timing advantage which argues for making a run for it.
I'm paying maximum now thinking it will lead to the fewest shots in the long run.
13/6
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