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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 09-05-26
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Position of the Day 09-05-26 (Stick)
Date: Monday, 21 September 2026, at 4:38 p.m.
I estimate Blue getting two rolls to get a 6, assuming White doesn't enter with {43,44,45,46} her first try:
11/36 + (25/36)*(29/36)*(11/36) = (11/36)*[1 + (3/4)^2] = (11/36)*(25/16) = 275/576 or a few percent under half the time. Those cases are huge market losers given that a lot of them are gammons; maybe already Too Good. It's time to concentrate on the Take possibility.
Suppose White gets In-N-Out while keeping her HB before Blue escapes. How often does she win those? It had better be at least 2/3, and that alone isn't enough because there are other scenarios we haven't covered yet. Note that even if White enters, jumping into the outfield on her second turn, Blue will get 11/36 to escape before White can even consider using the cube.
Always a concern when there is contact is Blue's three buried checker on his acepoint. Even when he escapes these contribute to White's likelihood of hitting a shot in the bearoff, AND their effect when bringing the two back checkers home.
Always a good pseudo-ref-pos is 2/3 wins with half of those being gammons (otherwise sometimes tagged "1/3 wins, 1/3 losses, 1/3 gammons"). Those are in the neighborhood of the Pass/Take line. I don't think White has quite 1/3 wins here while the 1/3 gammon loss feels likely. Meanwhile there are enough mine fields for Blue not to have a play-on.
R+P.
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