[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 09-07-26

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 22 September 2026, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-07-26 (Stick)

Blue's best rolls are {all 3's,21,55,66} = 15/36. For the other 21/36 let's treat as a race. Blue's 1 pip lead there (and we assume it stays that way...) makes him about 60-40 favorite. It's probably a bit more but we can make adjustments later if necessary. That means for the pure races White wins (cubeless) 0.4*(21/36) = 8.4/36. With cube ownership that would be enough right there.

White will get some wins after getting hit. Blue's gammons are possible but I don't think they are enough to sway this to a pass.

Meanwhile, Blue's 15/36 good rolls are market losers if White fails to roll a 4 (and sometimes when she does roll a 4). (15/36)*(25/36) = 375/1296 which is more than 324/1296 (i.e. more than 25%). The only turnaround sequences occur when Blue hits a fly shot while entering, but those are pretty rare and even then Blue can immediately counter. Thus I think we've fulfilled ODR.

D+T.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.