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Make up your mind XIII

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 22 September 2026, at 5:51 p.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind XIII (pierrez)

Most of Blue's 27 hitting numbers allow White an out of entering 25/24* on her immediate turn and sometimes next turn (but if two White checkers are on the bar by then there's still a mountain, or at least a steep hill, to climb). The immediate sequence I refer to are all hits other than {64,44,22,41}. We're looking at (21/36)*(11/36) = 231/1296 ~ 17.5% of the time for that scenario. Those should be close to cashes. Let's WAG another 4% wins for hitting White off the ace later, or this time after two get hit immediately.

White should win maybe ~2% for one or two treed and a Blue closed homeboard. With all this we're not close to a Take considering the gammons that come along for the ride quite often.

So..., maybe it's too good? Of Blue's misses only 55 leaves a shot. {63,52} make one of the midpoints which looks like R+T (if White owns the cube, obviously). The others look like No Doubles for White if owning the cube.

I can't quite talk myself into playing on here, and maybe a few White's would take this. Hell, maybe my analysis is wrong and it is a Take!

R+P.

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