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Position of the Day 10-17-26 - Easy Math

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 6 November 2026, at 10:48 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-17-26 - Easy Math (Stick)

White has three winning scenarios:

1) Blue doesn't roll {33,44,55,66} and White subsequently rolls a doublet -- (32/36)*(6/36) = 192/1296. Divide 192 by 13 and that's just under 15%.

2) Blue rolls any ace but 21, White doesn't roll a doublet, Blue rolls any ace -- (9/36)*(30/36)*(11/36) = (1/4)*(330/1296). 25% of 1296 is 324 so this product is a bit over (1/4)^2 so comfortably over 6%.

3) Blue rolls 21, [redouble+take], White doesn't roll a doublet, then Blue rolls any ace or deuce except 22 -- (2/36)*2*(30/36)*(19/36) = (1/9)*(570/1296) ~63/1296 ~5%.

Add it all up to get 26%. Then hope the rounding didn't hurt that more than 1% in the negative direction.

R+(close)T.

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