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RO if ND, 2-1, 2-1

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 13 August 2008, at 6:32 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (neilkaz)

I mentioned our 2-1 followed by Stick's enter as a possible D+T. Not so according to this RO (where I give Stick his best entering number). (Note: if we waited until this sequence, then doubled, and he passed, he would have 10.5% MWC according to GNU's Extended G11 -- what the rollout was based upon. Thus the RO result of 10.0% by taking indicates that he should indeed pass in this scenario.)

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 11 (match to 17 points)

Move number 10: White to play 12


 '2X2X2X3X2X ' ' ' ' ' '

 '2X4O2O2O2O3O2O ' ' '1X

Pip counts: White 129, Blue 79
Position ID: vG03AAC23YAATA Match ID: AYEoAiAAWAAA

• White moves bar/24 13/11

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 R bar/24 13/11 10.014%
 
0.24230.02770.0007-0.75770.22590.0125 9.315% 10.014%
0.00110.00060.0002-0.00110.00130.0010 0.016% 0.023%
  
  Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.  
  2612 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 834326720 and quasi-random dice  
  Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16  
  Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.  
  Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  2 4 bar/24 5/3 10.440% ( 0.426%)
  0.2680 0.0333 0.0005 - 0.7320 0.2273 0.0066  
  4-ply cubeful prune  
  3 4 bar/23 13/12 10.208% ( 0.193%)
  0.2295 0.0222 0.0003 - 0.7705 0.1297 0.0035  
  4-ply cubeful prune  
  4 2 bar/23 5/4 10.215% ( 0.201%)
  0.2328 0.0201 0.0002 - 0.7672 0.1295 0.0033  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  5 2 bar/23 2/1 9.937% ( -0.077%)
  0.2164 0.0189 0.0002 - 0.7836 0.1430 0.0046  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  6 2 bar/23 4/3 9.733% ( -0.281%)
  0.2050 0.0164 0.0002 - 0.7950 0.1438 0.0041  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  7 2 bar/23 3/2 9.698% ( -0.316%)
  0.2034 0.0162 0.0002 - 0.7966 0.1462 0.0043  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  8 2 bar/23 6/5 9.555% ( -0.460%)
  0.1952 0.0146 0.0001 - 0.8048 0.1476 0.0048  
  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]  
  9 0 bar/24 3/1 9.469% ( -0.546%)
  0.2135 0.0240 0.0001 - 0.7865 0.2467 0.0101  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  
  10 0 bar/24 6/4 9.392% ( -0.622%)
  0.2073 0.0217 0.0001 - 0.7927 0.2373 0.0102  
  0-ply cubeful prune [expert]  

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