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Interesting Little Position -- Part 2

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 9:22 p.m.

In Response To: Interesting Little Position -- Part 2 (Bill Riles)

I would definitely cube this. There look to be enough misses to make it a take.

Takepoint at score: drop for -9,-5 = about 28%. Take, lose = around 6%. Take, win = somewhere between 94-100% = around 97%. Risking 22% to gain ~69%, or somewhere around the normal 3-to-1 odds.

3-2, 3-1, 2-1 and White is the favorite. 1-1 makes Blue a bare favorite. 4-1, 5-1, 4-2, 5-2, get him to 2/3ish. That's 15 rolls...White can't get much out of the cube on these, though. 3 rolls win immediately. That leaves 18 rolls where he's a little worse than 1/6. So about ~10 wins in 36 games or something should make it enough to take, even without much recube vig.

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting Little Position -- Part 1
  Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 3:05 p.m.
  • Interesting Little Position -- Part 2
    Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 3:09 p.m.
    • Interesting Little Position -- Part 3
      Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 3:11 p.m.
      • Interesting Little Position -- Part 3
        Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 3:15 p.m.
      • Interesting Little Position -- Part 3
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 4:09 p.m.
        • Interesting Little Position -- Part 3
          Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 4:19 p.m.
    • Interesting Little Position -- Part 2
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 3:11 p.m.
    • Interesting Little Position -- Part 2
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 4:30 p.m.
    • Interesting Little Position -- Part 2
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 9:22 p.m.
  • Interesting Little Position -- Part 1
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 3:09 p.m.
    • Interesting Little Position -- Part 1
      Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 3:13 p.m.
  • Interesting Little Position -- Part 1
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 4:26 p.m.
  • Interesting Little Position -- Part 1
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 26 August 2008, at 9:08 p.m.
  • Interesting Little Position -- Part 1
    Marty Storer -- Thursday, 28 August 2008, at 3:38 p.m.
    • Interesting Little Position -- Part 1
      Marty Storer -- Thursday, 28 August 2008, at 3:39 p.m.