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Historic BG Quiz problem 1

Posted By: Barry Silliman
Date: Saturday, 30 August 2008, at 12:53 a.m.

In Response To: Historic BG Quiz problem 1 (Chuck Bower)

I'll play 13/10.

Here's my lazy OTB analysis...

If I can pick up your blot I have a decent shot of turning a loss into a win. (Very simplistic assumption- far from gin). If you can pick up my blot you have a decent shot of turning my loss into a gammon loss. (Again, far from gin).

By hanging back you leave a direct shot 2/36 of time and I hit 11/36 of time. (I'm being lazy and ignoring the indirects). So I gain big 22/1296.

By hanging back I give you 4/36 extra shots (15 vs 11). So I lose big 4/36 = 144/1296.

Now for money I need half as many wins as I give up gammons to justify my play, and 22 is way less than half of 144. Obviously my assumptions are very simplistic because I still have a good chance to get off the gammon if the 3rd checker is lifted, but also I am far from gin if I hit you with my 5 point open.

But since 22 is way less than half of 144, I'll conclude that I gain way too little from this play and not drill down further.

I'm nervous, this one seemed too easy. Either you started us out with an easy one, or maybe I made a mistake in my calculations or assumptions. Not unheard of.

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