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Historic BG Quiz problem 1

Posted By: Marty Storer
Date: Sunday, 31 August 2008, at 8:33 p.m.

In Response To: Historic BG Quiz problem 1 (Chuck Bower)

Well, I looked at 2-ply hitting chances for Black (ignoring those very few coming after White hits), and 8/5 gives only 41/1296 more of them than 13/11 6/5, in return for 3/36 or 108/1296 immediate hitting chances. 13/10 gets direct shots only on White's 66 65, and the number of indirects doesn't seem enough to compensate for immediate reduction in shots of only 1/36. So 13/11 6/5 ought to be right, maybe by .02 or so.

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