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BGonline.org Forums
The Kid vs. Kaz
Posted By: Marty Storer In Response To: The Kid vs. Kaz (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Wednesday, 3 September 2008, at 3:24 p.m.
(1) If you get hit back, the gains really are huge. Your timing is adjusted nicely. You gain more flexibility of spare placement because of that. He'll have more turns before you have to break your prime, so he can approach the cracking limit.
(2) Generally speaking, against a board like his, misplaced spares won't hurt you that much. You're not unconditionally trying to avoid being hit, as is often the case in a backgame with good timing--so you have flexibility on how to break up your forward position. You can break your 7 point first if you want to (often the right idea with full prime against busted 23-22 backgame). You can leave a direct shot if you want to (e.g. if the roll is right, keeping a five-prime, leaving a trailer blot on the 9); etc.
(3) Regardless of all that, it's reasonable not to hit, hoping he'll roll 3x or 22. Yet the rollout result favors the loose hit. Do you have any specific reason not to believe it, other than your belief that you should let White move? I mean, do you know of specific weaknesses in this bot that would skew the rollout result against a loose hit?
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