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ZEUS speaks

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 15 September 2008, at 5:36 p.m.

In Response To: football/ Chuck (bob koca)

Rule #1: if Madden and/or Michaels say anything about playcalling on 4th down or late in the game (like Michael's IDIOTIC claim when trailing by 9 or 10 to kick the easy fieldgoal and then plan on scoring the TD after recovering the onside kick), bet on the opposite.

GWC if go for FG: 12.8%.

GWC if go for first down: 14.5%.

This assumes they will onside kick after the FG (which they didn't do). That cost them another 3.7% (i.e. twice as bad of a decision).

In the Denver game (a wild one to say the least, and I only saw the last six minutes or so), Denver looked dead after QB fumbles near the goalline with 1:17 remaining, recovered by SD, EXCEPT, the ref had blown his whistle before the recovery because he thought it was an incomplete pass ("arm moving forward"). The replay overturned the incomplete/fumble BUT a replay may not overrule a whistle! So Denver keeps the ball (now at the 10 yardline) and scores the TD two plays later....

(Now as Bill mentions). Go for 1 point and the tie or 2 points for immediate win/loss? (Not quite because SD will have 30 seconds to get a FG in regulation if either tied or trailing).

This one is not across the board right/wrong in the NFL since it depends upon the relative offense/defense strength compared to chances of winning in OT. The line on the game was nearly even so figure it's 50% in OT. Can Denver convert more often than 50%? ZEUS says in this case, 55%, so Shanahan was clearly right in going for it. I haven't looked for his postgame press conference to see what his reasoning was.

Just to show that these things are far from automatically obvious, near the end of last season Baltimore was at (winless) Miami with time enough for one play in regulation, trailing by 3 on the 1-yardline. They kicked the FG, lost in OT, and their coach Brian Billick (since fired, probably partly do to his decision here) was UNANIMOUSLY criticized (including privite by me). Yet ZEUS gave the FG the nod by a slim 0.2% GWC. It said Baltimore was 54.8% to win in regulation by going for six compared to 55% by trying for FG and then winning in OT (because they were the better team). Call it a tossup but don't rake the guy over the coals.

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