[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

football/ Chuck

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 16 September 2008, at 4:47 p.m.

In Response To: football/ Chuck (Bob Koca)

The 5% number I used was oversimplified and conservative, just saying what the chances are of scoring 2 points (55%) vs. going to overtime (50%).

When I actually put in the exact situation (and let ZEUS look at all the possible variations that can occur in 1,000,000 trials for each branch) it's more like 58% to 48%. The 58% includes the onside kick option that you mention AND the chances of SD scoring when trailing by 1 with 25 s remaining. The 48% includes SD's chances of scoring an FG with 25 s remaining when the score is tied. It also includes any difference from the 50% assumption of winning in OT that I made earlier.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.