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Re: A critical cube from Pitt

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 20 February 2007, at 7:00 a.m.

In Response To: A critical cube from Pitt (neilkaz)

Since nobody else is taking a shot at this I will repeat my initial thoughts when Neil showed this to me in Pitt. w/out revealing the results. (I rolled it out at the time)

First thing is to decide whether or not Neil is too good here. At a glance I thought he had quite a strong position, strong enough to consider playing on. Then I started thinking what a hassle it is to get around the board if White ever rolls an ace. If Neil doesn't hit the 2nd blot he'll be leaving many jokers for many turns to come. Any ace almost will be a joker for White if he doesn't have two up. On top of this Blue needs that six to hop out and he doesn't always get it. I convinced myself that Neil isn't too good.

Next, is it a double? If I had to go through all that to figure out if Neil is too good or not it's likely a double and the volatility is pretty high with any ace or any six being huge for Neil. Since there's no great difference in level of play as Neil noted here he shouldn't hesitate to put the match on the line if it's the mathematically correct play. I voted to double.

Lastly, is it a take? If Ray drops he'll be -7 -3 leaving him around 24%. Since this cube will put the match on the line all he needs to figure out is if he can win at least 24% of the time from here. He's also a slight dog in the match since he is playing Neil so if it's close he should take instead of pass. I still opted to pass.

Stick

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