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Final table 3rd hand - YMTC

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 17 September 2008, at 4:34 p.m.

In Response To: Final table 3rd hand - YMTC (dc-ohio)

I don't know what 'YMTC' means.

I don't know if there is any tournament strategy/tactics that enter. You don't mention payouts so I take that to mean that they don't.

I project him either having a high pair or two very good overcards (AK; maybe AQ). Doing some BoE calcs (need to be mental if you're at the table, I realize) it looks to me as though the breakeven point is 30% for the OC's and 70% for the pair. I.e. if you think he's less than 70% of having a higher pair you stick around, oddswise.

Since AK is 2 2/3 times as likely as any specific pair (think that's right), he would have to be playing all the way down to (and including) 99 for you to not be getting pot odds.

You take advantage of position by just calling. A decent size raise pot comits you (I believe). You aren't likely to push opp off this hand if he has you beaten (mayby JJ or worse, but maybe not and he's less likely to have played the hand this way with those compared to the better pairs). If opp has AK, he should also be calling and there you are at an advantage, so the A-I works for that branch, but not greatly so (compared to getting the worst against pairs).

If I call to see a flop and A or K comes down, I'm going to fold any raise. OTOH, opp may check which give you bluffing options and in the least a free card. If nothing special hits the table and opp makes a raise of any reasonable size I'm going to be passing. Again, a check could be a trap but it's also a (minor) bluffing opportunity. And 1/8 of the time you make a set.

The outlier I haven't mentioned is that opp bluff raised already, although that seems pretty outrageous (to me) here. But it's non-zero and that goes in your favor.

I know small to middling pairs are felt to be very difficult to play so maybe folding now and settling for being second stack is right. But I'll call.

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