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Explain this rollout result

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 3:53 p.m.

In Response To: Explain this rollout result (bob koca)

There are some good things to be said for 8/6(2). White doesn't really need the 8 point. He's happy he kept it if White comes in on the deuce, but his 6s are also duplicated to come out and attack. If White comes in on the ace, he's happy that he broke the 8. The swing on Blue's entering 13 is big.

If Blue dances, it seems like White would be better off with the 8 point, but who knows. It turns 55 from a bad roll into a great one. On the other hand, it also gives up a fair amount of equity on 66 and 33, though 44 and 22 play somewhat better.

I would never have found this play OTB or QF, like I said, my OTB play would be 24/22 13/7. I'm convinced that's best if Blue dances or comes in but the swing on his 16 and 25 is too big. So 24/22(2) 13/9 would be fine with me.

Is the rollout winner the best play? Dunno. The result is quite close. There's a lot of play left, and GNU probably will misplay it at some point. Whether it will misplay it enough to swing the rollout result is questionable.

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