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Luck vs. Skill - Is A Rules Change Needed?

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Friday, 10 October 2008, at 10:58 a.m.

In Response To: Luck vs. Skill - Is A Rules Change Needed? (trichard)

If such a rule change were made, what would happen first is that we get into an adaptation phase. Much of our knowledge about the game would have to be abolished and re-searched. Bots and brains would have to be retrained. Surely this would alter the skill landscape, as some fine old-rules players would have difficulty to adapt. Maybe it would lead to more differentiation in the top tier.

But once the adaptation phase is over, I do not see how the new rule changes anything regarding luck. Is there any reason to believe that under the new rules, top players will be further apart in skill? If they will be extremely close in skill, as they are now, the game will then be decided by luck just as much as it is now - only the focus would shift from lucky doubles to, say, lucky hitters. Given (nearly) equal players, luck will find its way back into the game.

Maybe as the average number of pips will be reduced, games will be longer, leading to more decisions per game, leading to a larger amount of displayable skill per game. But that doesn't necessarily mean there will be more skill per time, and if we do not care about time restrictions, we might as well leave the rules as they are and just increase match lengths (post scriptum, I notice that's a point Sam has already made).

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