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Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 13 October 2008, at 4:48 p.m.

In Response To: OT: Going for 2 (for Chuck Bower) (Jason Lee)

It depends upon your assumptions (as we all know from BG).

Assumption 1: two equal, generic NFL teams on a neutral field, 47.5% success rate on 2-pt tries. 2-point conversion attempt is correct by 0.8% GWC.

Assumption 2: The teams abilities are based upon early season performance (where MIN is mediocre and DET sucks). Here are four success rates for MIN to convert and the associated difference (2-point try is better than 1-point try in all cases):

45% -- 0.6% GWC

50% -- 0.75% GWC

55% -- 0.9% GWC

60% -- 1.1% GWC

JSD's are 0.2% for all these results.

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