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match equity question

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 6:32 a.m.

In Response To: match equity question (Frank_N_Stein)

Cash point = 91%. White's takepoint = 9% (take point = gain / risk + gain or risk / risk + gain or something).

Doubling window = risk / risk + gain, or something. You get the idea, maybe. I'm not sure I get the idea, but I can do the calculations.

If you win, you have either 91% or 100%. If you lose, you have either 65% or 0%. 65 / 65+9 = 65/74 = about 6/7 = 86%ish. In reality it is about 88%.

A 4-roll position is around 28%. A 3-roll position is about 21%. A 2-roll position is about 14%. Since 88% > 86%, you should not double the 2-roll position.

You can play around with GNU's market window to get a better feel. Someone will undoubtedly explain this better than I did.

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