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match equity question

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Tuesday, 14 October 2008, at 6:50 a.m.

In Response To: match equity question (Frank_N_Stein)

No recube and win is 91%

Recube and win is 100%

No recube and lose is 65%

Recube and lose is 0%

So by recubing Blue is risking 65% (65-0) to gain 9% (100-91).

Blue's doubling window open at risk/(risk+gain) = 65/74 = 88%

Blue's doubling window close at 91% since White should drop with less than 9% GWC.

The doubling window for a recube to 4 at this score is as you can see very small. Positions where the correct cube action is redouble/take are rare. As an example, 4 checkers on the ace point for both players, a 2-roll position, is not a recube (White wins 14%).

Blue is very far from his doubling window (GNU says 81% GWC), so redoubling is a blunder.

Over the board I would not do the above calculation. I know Blue's cash point is 91%, and Blue is very far from winning 91%, so no recube.

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