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Does Gnu get this one wrong?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 21 October 2008, at 9:11 p.m.

In Response To: Does Gnu get this one wrong? (Dan Pelton)

Don't like it.

You need to clear the bar point before you start bearing off. The bar point isn't helping your position, it's hurting it. If White had one checker on the roof you might want to keep the bar point, but it's not because the bar point is so good, it's because you don't want to leave shots. Even there I would give consideration to clearing the bar and volunteering some shots so you can get in and get off (and my play would be 7/6 7/5 there as well).

Between the 3 plays: 7/6 7/5, 10/8 7/6, 10/9 7/5, there are some varying goals. Of course you would like to close the 4 point, but it's not really needed, as you probably win a gammon if you don't get hit. Is it worth taking a 35-1 risk to try to close the 4 point for long-term safety? I don't think it is, but it's probably close.

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