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How close is it really?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 23 October 2008, at 4:49 p.m.

In Response To: How close is it really? (Keene)

If Blue's race weren't hindered by the 4-prime I calculate his racing chances in the low 40's (41-42%). The blockage makes it lower, but how much?

If Blue picks and passes, obviously the biggest swing is the 11/36 shots (30.5%). These aren't all wins but he can also win by hitting a shot later or firing 3-6 now and then applying the whip, plus some late hit parlays.

To zeroth order (i.e. comparing the above) it seems like a lot of 1st and 2nd order affects have to go in favor of the non-hit for it to be best.

There is another hitting play: 10/9*, 5/2. There are some good things about this as well as some bad things. It would be just like me to miss the forest for the trees here. :) But I prefer the pick&cover in the homeboard, which leaves two fewer shots and less chances of the anchor (which Blue won't be able to keep for long, but maybe long enough to take advantage of the single checker anchor later).

6/3*/2.

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