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Chuck/ZEUS

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:10 p.m.

In Response To: Chuck/ZEUS (Matt Cohn-Geier)

The first position seems impossible to reach, because White should have doubled already... Or, if he reached this position by virtue of a double of some kind, blue would have. I assume that this must be right to double, mathematically, even though you are the clear underdog in the position... Looks like you are going to win about 560 times in 1296 or something accounting for those times you take 3 shakes, (otherwise it would be 583). Figuring out the wins by waiting would be laborious indeed. Good question, Matt!

Like 5/36 x 70% + 31/36 x .36111 = 9.72 + 31 = 40.8% or so..

and 560/1296= 43.2% so doubling as the dog would be righ, {as I suspected}. I think looking at the position and imagining myself OTB, I'd probably just roll ignorantly.

The second position? That is a little more like it, maybe only 44 is a market loser... I'd probably, (incorrectly I assume or you wouldn'ta put me to the question here), wait... and be glad if I rolled 44 or something that pointed on White. White will be doubling ME next turn, most likely... though he apparently waited LAST turn, wrongly and rolled: (4,3). So, why give the dummy the cube when I am behind now?... is my question! Worst case scenario he doubles and I have to take next turn? ORRRRRRRR::: Maybe he will keep messing up with it and I can gain a foothold, or I roll 44 and he takes next turn anyway? Cube misunderstanding is not a static entity, it is dynamic and it flows continuously like a river... The bozos keep making mistakes until you force them to do the right thing. I don't want to force em to do that.

I don't consult the bots on these positions too often, a little common sense goes a long way. If I am playing a perfect opponent the cube has already been activated, if not what the bot thinks has to be tempered by the human factor somewhat. The old pros have been using this against the pigeons for years.

Of course, there is the argument that I am a pigeon for not knowing to double these positions in 2 point matches, right Matt? You are one clever grasshopper.

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