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BGonline.org Forums
LV Round #5 Play #2
Posted By: Dan Pelton In Response To: LV Round #5 Play #2 (neilkaz)
Date: Friday, 21 November 2008, at 4:31 a.m.
We are still 15 pips behind after the roll, which argues for staying back on 21 to maximize contact. Making the 4 pt and leaving a blot on the 8 is also less scary than usual given white's 2 blots in his home board.
White may not even hit on the 8 if they can't cover at least one of the blots. After 21-13, 8-4(2), I don't believe white will hit on 3-1, 3-6, and 2-1 rolls (ahead in race and would leave 2 pts open for return shots which, if hit would help to even the race up), leaving 7 hitting rolls. As Neil stated, having the 4 pt is good also in being able to contain if we hit a shot.
OTB, I probably chicken out and play 21-17(3) 17-13 but QF I prefer 21-13, and 4 pt.
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