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where did gnu go wrong

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:58 a.m.

In Response To: where did gnu go wrong (Dan Pelton)

The rollout equity looks like this:

Player Dan owns 2-cube:
0.749 0.367 0.028 - 0.251 0.055 0.006 CL +1.596 CF +1.246
[0.004 0.005 0.003 - 0.004 0.002 0.002 CL 0.025 CF 0.036]

The eval equity looks like this:

0.707 0.365 0.029 - 0.293 0.071 0.002

So the rollout has White winning 4.2% more games and losing 1.6% fewer gammons. Gammons still account for a huge percentage of White's wins and, therefore, you have significant recube vig and the position is very volatile--these are not the kind of positions you want with a lead in the match. The leader would definitely prefer a quieter position at the score.

This is an enormous pass for money, it's still a huge pass at the score, it's just less of a pass than it is for money.

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