OTB I passed. I analyzed it with the following. White enters with 4s and 6s from the bar, 20/36 times, slightly greater than 50%. With any entering roll other than 4-1, White jumps out to the outfield. Uaing an average roll of 8, I figured opponent ends up @ 17 pt, then 9 pt, then enters home board, 3 rolls. I roll average, take off 2 checkers each time, so after 4 rolls, White has 9 off to my 8 off and is on roll. Assuming I will lose 80% of these, or 16 games. On the rolls where White dances, I assume I will win 40%, or 6 games. Looking at it now, I would estimate I win 10 games, more than enough for the take. I was probably more pessimistic OTB.
Since the rollout shows a win for me 25.2% I clearly have enough for the take. Is the reason its a .189 error due to the recube vig?
Can I get fries with that double whopper with cheese?
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 1, Dan 1 (match to 5 points)
Move number 4: gnubg on roll, cube decision?
| gnubg | 32 |
|---|---|
| |
| Dan | 34 |
Position ID: d58BAMANAAAIAA Match ID: MAGgABAACAAA | |
• gnubg doubles
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.495 | (Money: +0.495) | |
| 0.748 0.000 0.000 - 0.252 0.000 0.000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.811 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.000 | +0.189 |
| 3. | No double | +0.635 | -0.175 |
| Proper cube action: | Double, take | ||
Cube analysis 2-ply cubeless equity +0.495 (Money: +0.495) 0.748 0.000 0.000 - 0.252 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take +0.811 2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.189) 3. No double +0.635 ( -0.175) Proper cube action: Double, take