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BGonline.org Forums
Simplified analysis
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Let's not stop yet (Chuck Bower)
Date: Saturday, 17 March 2007, at 3:49 p.m.
Assume all players behind you can cover your all-in bet. Assume any player will call with paired 10's or higher, and with AK, AQ, AJ but will fold otherwise. (Note the four numbers on each line are: A) probability of occurrence; B) probability you win the hand; C) stack increase multiplier; D) stack value from this brance (i.e. stacksize expectation).
all players behind you fold: 69.8% * 100% * 1.2 = 0.838
one player calls with high pair: 12.6% * 19.0% * 2 = 0.048
one player calls with two high cards: 15.6% * 53.0% * 2 = 0.165
two players call, both with high cards: 2.0% * 44.2% * 3 = 0.027
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total 1.078
What this means is that based upon the assumptions, your stack increases (on average) by 8% if you push, compared to if you fold (where it remains at 1). There is no time-value-of-money folded in (i.e. that you will get blinded away).
Note that if two or more call you are BETTER off than if exactly one person called, regardless of value of the SECOND best hand.
The main concern is that (single) players will call with worse hands than the above assumption, which lowers your expectation. But will it drop your expectation to less than 1?
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