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1st game cube OTB & Rollout

Posted By: Dan Pelton
Date: Wednesday, 31 December 2008, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: 1st game cube (pontiac)

OTB I chickened out and dropped this. I overestimate Ken's gammon chances. Here's the rollout.

The score (after 0 games) is: Ken 0, Dan 0 (match to 25 points)

Move number 4: Ken on roll, cube decision?

Ken	113
Dan	125
Position ID: tJ0nAAxm24YBQA Match ID: MAEgAwAAAAAA

• Ken doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.073)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.330	(Money: +0.329)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.488
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.512
3.	Double, take	+0.415	-0.073
Proper cube action:		No double, take (12.5%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.629 0.142 0.004 - 0.371 0.074 0.002 +0.330 +0.488 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007 Player Dan owns 2-cube 0.637 0.141 0.004 - 0.363 0.075 0.002 +0.695 +0.415 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.007 0.016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812317074 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 1st game cube
  Dan Pelton -- Sunday, 28 December 2008, at 5:24 p.m.
  • 1st game cube
    pontiac -- Sunday, 28 December 2008, at 6:58 p.m.
    • 1st game cube OTB & Rollout
      Dan Pelton -- Wednesday, 31 December 2008, at 1:38 a.m.
      • 1st game cube OTB & Rollout
        Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 31 December 2008, at 2:09 a.m.
        • 1st game cube OTB & Rollout
          Dan Pelton -- Wednesday, 31 December 2008, at 2:19 a.m.
  • 1st game cube
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 28 December 2008, at 8:04 p.m.