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Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 3 January 2009, at 9:49 a.m.

In Response To: Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb (Dan Pelton)

As Neil already posted, the *within' 5" is a good time to think about reshipping. A lot of the time it will depend on where the checkers are, but that's when you pay attention.

Move number 5: Stick on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	38
Stick	57
Position ID: 3wMAANp2dwAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5588
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0003	+0.0003
3.	No double	+0.9679	-0.0321
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7794 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2206 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5588 +0.9679 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7804 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2196 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1218 +1.0003 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813223021 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Oh the difference spares can make. (in relation to immediate blotting numbers and a fast/clean/efficient bearoff)

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, Stick 0

gnubg	38
Stick	54
Position ID: 3wMAANrubgAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4743
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.8472
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1528
3.	Double, take	+0.8107	-0.0364
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (19.3%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7372 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2628 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4743 +0.8472 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7396 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2604 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9582 +0.8107 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813591585 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Take away the immediate blotting numbers but still fugde the spares, big change still.

Move number 5: Stick on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	38
Stick	56
Position ID: 3wMAANp2bwAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4666
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.8406
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1594
3.	Double, take	+0.7832	-0.0574
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (26.5%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7333 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2667 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4666 +0.8406 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7340 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2660 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9361 +0.7832 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812741863 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Looking for the ideal amount of crunched v. home board points with the same number of men off.

Move number 5: Stick on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	34
Stick	57
Position ID: /wEAANp2dwAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5665
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0215	+0.0215
3.	No double	+0.9810	-0.0190
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7833 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2167 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5665 +0.9810 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0007 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7844 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2156 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1377 +1.0215 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0008
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812926775 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

An attempt to illustrate the importance of the crunched board for bearing off versus more points in your board for that rare time you get a shot and hit it.

Move number 5: Stick on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	41
Stick	57
Position ID: 7wYAANp2dwAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5612
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0070	+0.0070
3.	No double	+0.9735	-0.0265
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7806 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2194 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5612 +0.9735 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7828 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2172 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1313 +1.0070 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813051343 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

An even better example with the same number of men off and a better board. Being crunched to the 2pt board seems to be ideal in this variation.

Move number 5: Stick on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	47
Stick	57
Position ID: uw0AANp2dwAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5857
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0725	+0.0683
3.	No double	+1.0042	+0.0000
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7928 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2072 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5857 +1.0042 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7986 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2014 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1946 +1.0725 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0005
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813017111 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Move number 5: Stick on roll, cube decision?

The ND equity is pooched here, GNU is taking passes later. Still 79% wins seems correct.

gnubg	52
Stick	57
Position ID: AwAAbNvdAQAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5804
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0432	+0.0089
3.	No double	+1.0343	+0.0000
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7902 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2098 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5804 +1.0343 Standard error 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0009 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7911 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2089 0.0000 0.0000 +1.1645 +1.0432 Standard error 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0007 0.0009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813081517 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Spare placement can have a big effect on these positions.

Move number 5: Stick on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	52
Stick	54
Position ID: AwAAbLu7AQAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5373
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.9683
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0317
3.	Double, take	+0.9633	-0.0051
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (13.8%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7687 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2313 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5373 +0.9683 Standard error 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0008 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7728 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2272 0.0000 0.0000 +1.0914 +0.9633 Standard error 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812701366 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

That's all, I get easily bored with this as my decisions are more based on the opponent(s) I'm player rather than what the theoretical correct cube action is for either side.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
  Dan Pelton -- Saturday, 3 January 2009, at 2:03 a.m.
  • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 3 January 2009, at 3:29 a.m.
  • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 3 January 2009, at 4:19 a.m.
  • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
    Stick -- Saturday, 3 January 2009, at 9:49 a.m.
    • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 3 January 2009, at 10:27 a.m.
      • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
        Dan Pelton -- Saturday, 3 January 2009, at 10:39 p.m.
  • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
    Klaus Evers -- Sunday, 4 January 2009, at 1:58 p.m.
    • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
      Dan Pelton -- Monday, 5 January 2009, at 12:57 a.m.
      • Closed Board Cube Decision Rule of Thumb
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 5 January 2009, at 2:52 a.m.