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Take point at 1aw/4aw pC

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 3:13 p.m.

I grep up as a bg player knowing that the free drop was worth 1,5%. Therefore, I always thought the leader's take point at 1aw/4aw pC to be something around 48,5%.

A recent discussion with a friend made me realize I was not considering many factors. The percentage of gammon loss in the position is naturally one of them.

I did some math and the conclusions are surprising to me.

I assumed the percentage of gammon for each player at the beginning if the game to be 13,5%, which I believe is the current accepted standard.

These are the most amazing conclusions I came to:

- If trailer doubles in a position with 13,5% gammon, leader's take point is as low as 42,7%.

- If trailer forgets to double, and then doubles in a position with 0% gammon, leader's take point is as low as 34,5%.

I always thought that a small disadvantage was enough to make using the free drop correct. Have I always been wrong?

Please let me know if there is something wrong in my math.

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