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Take point at 1aw/4aw pC

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 4:24 p.m.

In Response To: Take point at 1aw/4aw pC (David Rockwell)

Davis says: I'll know more soon. For now, I think your math is basically correct. But, your conclusion is suspect.

Carlo says: I think I found an error in my math. While the 34,5% TP with 0% gammon is correct, the 42,7% TP with 13,5% gammon loss must be wrong. I believe I confused TOTAL percentage of gammon loss with RELATIVE percentage of gammon loss. Using the correct percentage, the TP with a 13,5% total gammon loss comes now to be 49,1%, which is more in line with my expectations.

Davis says: And, at 4a1aP I am guessing that 1a will frequently get the cube immediately after winning the initial roll and will have a clear drop. At 2a1aP there are a couple of initial moves which are borderline take / drops but taking is always reasonable.

Carlo says: I believe you are wrong here. At 1aw4awP, 1a always has to take after winning the initial roll, for the reasons already stated in our discussion.

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