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If you get the Sunday NYTimes...

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 2 February 2009, at 4:55 p.m.

In Response To: If you get the Sunday NYTimes... (happyjuggler0)

I've read this twice. I don't comprehend your first point.

ZEUS is very much like a backgammon bot in assigning errors (and intentionally so :). When we say 6% GWC errors, that's like 6% MWC cost of errors in a BG match. Over the long haul, making 6% MWC errors will average out to one extra loss in 16 matches (rounded, of course, since 16 X 0.06 is technically 0.96).

But I don't see how this is related to the rules that determine playoff teams.

Your second issue about the team with possession at the end of the 4th quarter getting the ball in OT will almost certainly change the probabilities of winning in OT. It also will likely affect the frequency of OT's because a team with the ball late in a tied game might not try so hard to win it in regulation if a turnover could mean the other team gets the ball in OT. BTW, if a team tries a FG and misses right at the end of regulation, who gets the ball in OT? There certainly would be subtle strategic decision making. Yeh, I'll bet the NFL really wants to go for something like that!

Just as it's not clear that reducing/eliminating luck in BG is a good thing, maybe changing the rules to reduce luck in FB isn't a good thing, either.

Regarding playoff selection my personal opinion (ZEUS doesn't have opinions :) is that winning your division should not guarantee you a playoff spot. Why should teams like Arizona and San Diego that play in the weakest divisions get in while a team that plays in a tougher division and has a better record gets left out? (BTW, I'm not a Pats fan. I'm not anybody's fan as far as the NFL goes. At least not until a team makes a deal with us.)

Messages In This Thread

• If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
  Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 31 January 2009, at 8:48 p.m.
  • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
    Strato -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 11:17 a.m.
    • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
      jdg -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 2:23 p.m.
      • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 8:31 p.m.
    • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 7:16 p.m.
      • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 8:35 p.m.
    • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
      Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 8:36 p.m.
  • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
    happyjuggler0 -- Sunday, 1 February 2009, at 9:48 p.m.
    • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 4:55 p.m.
      • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
        Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 2 February 2009, at 9:33 p.m.
      • If you get the Sunday NYTimes...
        Barry Silliman -- Wednesday, 4 February 2009, at 12:59 a.m.