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BGonline.org Forums
Snowie and GNU don't agree
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Snowie and GNU don't agree (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 9 February 2009, at 3:32 a.m.
Looks close. 18/9 gives you a direct shot on 9 numbers, 7 numbers PoH on the ace, 7 more clear the 10-point, 9 hit and pass on the 7, while the other 4 are neutral numbers (42,41) If White rolls one of his 4 neutral numbers, he eventually leaves a shot 9/32 of the time. So it looks like a little over 10/36 shots altogether. You hit about 1/3 of those and then win the game around 85% after hitting. That's about 2.85 wins in 36 games. If he leaves a shot and you miss, your winning chances are probably in the 5% range. That's another 0.35/36 wins and makes the running total 3.2/36.
How about the other 26 games? PoH's are about 30% of these and leave you with only around 3% chances. Another 30% clear the 10 and leave you with a weak phantom ace-pt game with maybe 5% chances. The remaining 40% hit on the 7 and pass. Here you might be able to anchor on the ace, so maybe you win 10% of these. This totals around 6.4% chances or 1.7 of these games. Total wins are therefore 4.9/36.
The alternative is 24/18 6/3. Here White blots with 6 numbers and clears with 11 numbers and rates to leave a shot at some point 6/17 after his other 19 numbers. That works out to around 12.67 shots leavers in 36 games. You hit 1/3 of those and win 85% after hitting for about 3.55 wins.
If you get a shot and fail to hit, or never get a shot, you'll have to try and win the race. Kleinman's racing formula sez the trailer in a 75-98 race only wins around 7% of the time. 7% of the 31.8 games where you don't hit immediately is around 2.25. So the grand total for this play is 5.8 wins in 36 games.
The bizarro play probably wins a few more g's because you get more immediate hits but definitely not enough to make up this deficit in winning chances.
24/18 6/3.
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