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BGonline.org Forums
My hat's off...
Posted By: David Rockwell In Response To: My hat's off... (Christian Munk-Christensen)
Date: Friday, 20 February 2009, at 4:09 p.m.
You have a proper double when the gain from doubling now is greater than the loss from doubling now. Take the gain from your market losers and compare that to the loss when after two shakes you no longer have a double. Everyone understands the first item. The second never gets any attention. The two are equally important when evaluating a double. The second item is measured by the size of the error of doubling or redoubling next turn rather than now when your position deteriorates.
In this position, there are many market losers. The size of the gain from doubling now looks relatively large. So, there is a lot of upside.
Now look at the downside. Imagine that you fail to cover with something like 5-4. You leave the blot and it is hit. This is an enormous loss. You certainly would NOT redouble this position. If the cube is already turned, it constitutes a loss. You can measure that loss by checking the "error" in redoubling at this time had the cube been held. This loss is a lot bigger than the gain on your average market loser. Even if this happens less frequently than the market losers, apparently the size of the loss offsets the potential gains. I can't say that I would have held the cube at the board. I'm sure I would have turned it. But, this does make sense to me after looking at your numbers.
It is often said that the cube should be turned because the position is volatile. This is true when the upside is volatile. The opposite is true whe the downside is volatile. You are inclined to wait when there is more volatility downward than upward. That is the case here.
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