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My hat's off...

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Friday, 20 February 2009, at 10:44 p.m.

In Response To: My hat's off... (Christian Munk-Christensen)

Looking at Neil's rollout, it appears that the common sense analysis you initially presented may reach the correct answer. So, I don't want to continue to argue that this isn't a cube when it very well may be a good one.

I will say that you need to keep those gammons in mind. It is a little further from a cash than it appears (using your 2 ply rollout). I learned this the hard way with a position that is easy to set up and study. Set up a position with four off, one checker hit in the bareoff which is now behind a partial prime and the rest crunched. Play around with the prime and outfield control until you get a borderline take/drop. Then check out the gammons and winning%. This will give you a feel for how much the cash point moves with a handful of gammons. You can apply this result to the position at hand to get a feeling about how the gammons affect the cash point. I set one up just now (which I don't have time to post). With 3.5% gammons, the cash point dropped approximately 2.5%. Apply that to your original 2 ply rollout to see how far from a cash you really were.

Whether I misread this particular position or not, the theory I discussed should be relevent. Look for volatile sequences in both directions. When you are at the top end of the window, you will probably have more market losers than the converse. After all, when you add up the equity for all sequences it has to equal the current equity. You can get an exception to the common sense rule if most sequences increase equity by a very small amount (without losing your market) but a small number of sequences are a disaster. An example of this would be a backgame where equity usually increases by an inch by your next turn, but there are very small number of sequences which are terrible (like a fluke cracking roll). Since there is little to gain by doubling now and big losses on a few, you wait even though you may be very close to a cash.

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