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Ugly take?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 1:25 p.m.

In Response To: Ugly take? (KenB)

Since my intuition doesn't have a whole lot to say about what to do when I am facing a triple shot and not on the bar, here's how I would approach this:

9 misses = even game = somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5 wins.

On the 27 hits how bad is it? Can I win 20% of the games? I'd sure think so. How about 30%? That seems reasonable. But if I can win 30% of the games when I get hit I'd need to be gammoned upwards of almost 40% of the time...that doesn't look reasonable. Hence take.

Messages In This Thread

• Ugly take?
  KenB -- Tuesday, 3 March 2009, at 11:11 p.m.
  • Ugly take?
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 2:34 a.m.
  • Ugly take?
    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 3:46 a.m.
  • Ugly take?
    happyjuggler0 -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 6:12 a.m.
    • Ugly take?
      happyjuggler0 -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 6:14 a.m.
  • Ugly take?
    Stick -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 7:50 a.m.
  • Ugly take?
    Ade -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 11:42 a.m.
  • Ugly take?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 12:48 p.m.
  • Ugly take?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 1:25 p.m.
  • Huge take!
    KenB -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 4:21 p.m.
    • Some more thoughts
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 4:24 p.m.
    • Huge take!
      happyjuggler0 -- Wednesday, 4 March 2009, at 6:12 p.m.
    • Huge take!
      John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 4:20 a.m.