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RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 9 March 2009, at 5:14 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube (Stick)

I kept hoping the rollout would reverse itself, but 61.8 joint standard deviations is a pretty tall mountain to climb. BTW, the area in the tail of the Gaussian corresponding to this is 3.7*10**(-831). If you can think of any physical quantity this small I'd be very interested in seeing it!

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 12 (match to 17 points)

Move number 4: Blue to play 56

White	162
Blue	144
Position ID: 4s7gADjYzpIBQg Match ID: cIk6AiAAYAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.3363)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5285	(Money: +0.6197)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.5994
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.4006
3.	Double, take	+0.2632	-0.3363
Proper cube action:		No double, take (45.6%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6840 0.3041 0.0474 - 0.3160 0.0933 0.0064 +0.5285 +0.5994 Standard error 0.0006 0.0008 0.0007 - 0.0006 0.0004 0.0002 0.0019 0.0041 Player White owns 2-cube 0.6785 0.3074 0.0748 - 0.3215 0.0903 0.0065 +0.7396 +0.2632 Standard error 0.0008 0.0011 0.0011 - 0.0008 0.0004 0.0002 0.0051 0.0069
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
16039 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed -228318134 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
  Stick -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 9:30 a.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    Ade -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 10:56 a.m.
    • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
      Ade -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 11:26 a.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 11:13 a.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    misja -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 11:41 a.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    Barry Silliman -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 12:50 p.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    pontiac -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 3:09 p.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 3:28 p.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    jdg -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 4:13 p.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 5:05 p.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    MandM1951 -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 5:28 p.m.
    • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 4:45 p.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    Tad Bright -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 5:32 p.m.
  • OLM Thurs. March 5th - Cube
    Havard Raddum -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 9:13 a.m.
  • RO
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 5:14 p.m.
    • RO
      Barry Silliman -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 3:13 a.m.
    • RO
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 3:44 p.m.
    • notation question
      garyo -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 10:33 p.m.