BGonline.org Forums

you can do the math

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 3:38 p.m.

In Response To: you can do the math (Chuck Bower)

I did a simulation that showed you end up with a stronger player, on average, winning the Second Chance than winning the Main. (But it is close, something like 51% probability that the SC winner is stronger.) The result held up in a wide variety of assumptions (different field sizes, different distribution of player strengths).

It's just as hard to win the SC because there are more rounds. The main effect of this is you have to win more games and this overcomes the fact that you are allowed one loss along the way.

In addition to that, the extra rounds in the SC mean that section is better at sorting out who is the best, helped partly by the fact that the Main sends its stronger losers into the later rounds of the SC.

Messages In This Thread

• Modified swiss
  rew -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 2:30 p.m.
  • Modified swiss
    Jason Lee -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Modified swiss
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 4:07 p.m.
    • Why do like records play like records?
      Tom Keith -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 4:39 p.m.
      • Why do like records play like records?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 4:58 p.m.
      • Why do like records play like records?
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 5:00 p.m.
        • Why do like records play like records?
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 5:51 p.m.
          • Why do like records play like records?
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 5:06 p.m.
            • Why do like records play like records?
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 9:10 p.m.
              • Why do like records play like records?
                Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 7 March 2009, at 9:02 a.m.
                • Why do like records play like records?
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 7 March 2009, at 9:51 a.m.
              • Disagree, as stated
                Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 7 March 2009, at 3:40 p.m.
                • Disagree, as stated
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 7 March 2009, at 10:39 p.m.
                  • Rather
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 7 March 2009, at 10:48 p.m.
      • Why do like records play like records?
        Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 6:41 p.m.
      • Why do like records play like records?
        Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 9:06 p.m.
      • Why do like records play like records?
        Rich Munitz -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 6:03 p.m.
        • Why do like records play like records?
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 8:54 p.m.
          • Why do like records play like records?
            Rich Munitz -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 10:57 p.m.
            • Why do like records play like records?
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 7 March 2009, at 6:36 p.m.
            • Why do like records play like records?
              mfic -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 8:25 p.m.
              • Why do like records play like records?
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 9:09 p.m.
        • Why do like records play like records?
          Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 7 March 2009, at 9:33 a.m.
  • Modified swiss
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 8:05 p.m.
  • Modified swiss
    Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 9:09 p.m.
    • Modified swiss
      Jason Lee -- Thursday, 5 March 2009, at 10:49 p.m.
      • Modified swiss
        Sam Pottle -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 12:31 a.m.
      • Modified swiss
        Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 2:52 p.m.
        • Modified swiss
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 3:45 p.m.
          • Modified swiss
            Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 6 March 2009, at 4:37 p.m.
        • DE
          garyo -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 2:46 a.m.
          • DE
            Tom Keith -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 9:31 p.m.
            • DE
              garyo -- Tuesday, 10 March 2009, at 10:30 p.m.
              • DE
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 12:42 a.m.
                • you can do the math
                  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 2:38 p.m.
                  • you can do the math
                    Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 3:38 p.m.
                    • you can do the math
                      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 11 March 2009, at 3:53 p.m.
        • Modified swiss
          mfic -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 7:35 p.m.
  • what is monrad? *NM*
    garyo -- Sunday, 8 March 2009, at 5:48 a.m.
  • Modified swiss
    mfic -- Monday, 9 March 2009, at 8:00 p.m.