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rollout

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 29 March 2007, at 6:36 p.m.

In Response To: vs. Keene at Midwest, #2 (Chuck Bower)

TCTC among the top four plays. From the rollout -- clear not to lift at this score. I don't know if the gammon numbers are representative since if the cube gets turned Blue won't worry about saving a gammon. I think I'll run this at $-play to see if that matters.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 1 (match to 5 points)

Move number 8: Blue to play 41

Pip counts: White 64, Blue 147
Position ID: d8dsAACmrciAQQ Match ID: UQmmACAACAAA

• Blue moves bar/20

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.9178	(Money: -0.9927)
	0.2141 0.0186 0.0002 - 0.7859 0.4368 0.0029
Cubeful equities:
	2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.	No double	-0.7010
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.7010
3.	Double, take	-0.8477	-0.1467
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (7.9%)

Alert: bad move ( -0.086)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	bar/21 8/7	-0.6398
			0.2386 0.0395 0.0016 - 0.7614 0.5307 0.0091 -0.7603 -0.6398 0.0012 0.0036 0.0004 - 0.0012 0.0062 0.0019 0.0061 0.0052
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1170 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1020615744 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/21 11/10	-0.6478 ( -0.0079)
			0.2385 0.0391 0.0017 - 0.7615 0.5498 0.0107 -0.7455 -0.6478 0.0012 0.0028 0.0005 - 0.0012 0.0066 0.0020 0.0064 0.0052
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1170 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1020615744 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/21 5/4	-0.6483 ( -0.0085)
			0.2393 0.0403 0.0009 - 0.7607 0.5650 0.0133 -0.7350 -0.6483 0.0013 0.0032 0.0016 - 0.0013 0.0072 0.0023 0.0064 0.0054
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1170 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1020615744 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	bar/21 7/6	-0.6489 ( -0.0091)
			0.2343 0.0365 0.0034 - 0.7657 0.5252 0.0099 -0.7853 -0.6489 0.0013 0.0027 0.0014 - 0.0013 0.0058 0.0018 0.0060 0.0054
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1170 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1020615744 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	5	R	bar/20	-0.7254 ( -0.0855)
			0.1785 0.0220 0.0007 - 0.8215 0.3339 0.0025 -0.8630 -0.7254 0.0017 0.0026 0.0004 - 0.0017 0.0079 0.0008 0.0059 0.0068
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1020615744 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	3	bar/21 13/12	-0.6896 ( -0.0498)
			0.2310 0.0280 0.0006 - 0.7690 0.4942 0.0073
			3-ply cubeful
	7	3	bar/21 4/3	-0.7363 ( -0.0965)
			0.2184 0.0260 0.0006 - 0.7816 0.5063 0.0039
			3-ply cubeful
	8	3	bar/21 6/5	-0.8312 ( -0.1914)
			0.1942 0.0199 0.0004 - 0.8058 0.5244 0.0099
			3-ply cubeful
	9	3	bar/21 2/1	-0.8641 ( -0.2243)
			0.1854 0.0223 0.0004 - 0.8146 0.5350 0.0072
			3-ply cubeful

Messages In This Thread

• vs. Keene at Midwest, #2
  Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 3:13 p.m.
  • Re: vs. Keene at Midwest, #2
    Klaus Evers -- Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 3:59 p.m.
    • Re: vs. Keene at Midwest, #2
      Stick -- Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 4:43 p.m.
    • Re: Re: vs. Keene at Midwest, #2
      Keene -- Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 8:53 p.m.
  • Come on. Step up to the plate!
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 8:54 p.m.
    • Re: Come on. Step up to the plate!
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 27 March 2007, at 10:56 p.m.
  • rollout
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 29 March 2007, at 6:36 p.m.
  • $-play rollout
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 April 2007, at 9:43 p.m.