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NG-OLM Fri. April 3rd, play + cube

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 3 April 2009, at 5:21 p.m.

In Response To: NG-OLM Fri. April 3rd, play + cube (Stick)

I calculate a takepoint around 21-22% Game Winning Chances (GWC). [Note: I'm trading Stick's open 5-point with our extra outside pips = 16-8. That's probably slightly biased in our favor.]

If we pull the full breakaway we're about 18% GWC -- can we do 3% better?

If we run one back checker Stick hits and covers with 7/36 or about 20% of the time, of which we hit back immediately less than 8%, os call this 18% chance of hit+cover++miss. Meanwhile we only pick up Stick's {6-1,6-2}X{hit} = 1/9 * 1/3 ~ 4% GWC. Looks like a really bad tradeoff.

So we're left with keeping the 18-point. Now Stick's 6-3 is also a shot ==> 6% bonus from immediate shot++hit. We just have to find out if the race deterioration from triple stacking the 2-point costs us more than 3% GWC. Ward penalizes 1 pip for each extra checker on the 2-point after the first two checkers there. And a pip is about 2% GWC, so it looks like we give the 6% back by stacking the 2-point. :(

Staying is probably still right compared to running both since we do pick up an occasional gammon. EXCEPT we can't win a gammon after D+P.

2(2) and Pass.

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