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Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 6 April 2009, at 4:47 p.m.

In Response To: Poker: Flipping coins for $900K (Stick)

Given that info he also knows it's a dead coinflip at worst....

If Dwan figures Barry for aces OR kings, then he himself has three fewer outs if kings. It takes 14 outs {nine spades, two queens, three kings} to make this a 50-50 prop: 1 - [(47 - 14)/47]^2 = 49.3%.

Am I missing something?

(BTW, I know about the cards held by the other players, but Dwan doesn't. I'm not nitpicking the video screenshot showing 50-50.)

Messages In This Thread

• Poker: Flipping coins for $900K
  dc-ohio -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 2:38 p.m.
  • Poker: Flipping coins for $900K
    happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 3:50 p.m.
    • Poker: Flipping coins for $900K
      Stick -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 4:16 p.m.
      • Outs
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 4:47 p.m.
        • Outs
          Stick -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 4:49 p.m.
        • Outs
          dc-ohio -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 6:17 p.m.
    • Poker: Flipping coins for $900K
      dc-ohio -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 6:05 p.m.
    • Thanks
      happyjuggler0 -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 5:26 a.m.