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Correlation between ERs and MWC

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 3:32 p.m.

In Response To: Correlation between ERs and MWC (Marv Porten)

Doug Zare looked at this question in his GammonVillage article here: http://www.gammonvillage.com/backgammon/news/article_display.cfm?resourceid=5105

He found that a FIBS 100 rating point difference roughly corresponds to 1.8 millipoints per move. If this is correct, then we should be able to get at least an approximate answer to your question.

If a 4 ER player is starting a 15 point match against a 6 ER player, what is his MWC and how is it calculated?

An 2.0 ER difference corresponds to 100 x 2.0/1.8 = 111 rating points.

The FIBS rating formula is described here: http://www.bkgm.com/faq/Ratings.html#rating_formula

The probability of winning a 15-point match with a rating advantage of 111 points is about 62%.

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