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Yet More Zurich Mint Online Cube Action

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Thursday, 23 April 2009, at 5:57 a.m.

In Response To: Yet More Zurich Mint Online Cube Action (adambulldog)

Here's the intermediate view: ZurichMint doubles because he'll probably be gammoned and lose the match if he doesn't eventually hit you, so he has nothing to lose by doubling. He hopes to hit you earlier rather than later. Your gammonless takepoint is 20%, but there is a slight gammon risk, so I'll raise the takepoint to 23%. You get hit immediately 55.6% of the time, and most of those hits lose the game for you -- let's say 53% of those hits are losses. In the remaining 44.4% you'll probably leave a shot 75% of the time and since some of those shots will be double shots, you'll be hit about 42%, and lose about 80% of those games (44.4%x75%x42%x80%=11.2% more losses). I have you losing 64.2% and winning 35.8%, so it looks like an easy take.

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