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Scale of Open/Intermediaate Players

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Wednesday, 29 April 2009, at 9:17 p.m.

In Response To: Scale of Open/Intermediaate Players (Jason Lee)

Don't you have that backwards? If players steer into positions with forced decisions, then it's SNOWIE that introduces bias into the ER.

No, I don't, though I should have clarified what kind of bias I mean. Obviously, if the evaluation were perfect, the gnubg method would give an unbiased estimate of the equity given up per unforced play. The question is, why would that be more helpful (as an indicator of skill, or more precisely: successful play) than the equity given up per play? Steering into positions that you know how to play well is part of your overall skill, and positions with forced decisions are an extreme example of those. Or, as Zare puts it:

"If you blitz your opponent too often at DMP and often achieve strong 5 point boards and closeouts, then you will have many more unforced moves than your opponent will. It is possible to give up more equity overall, while gnu reports that you are giving up less equity per unforced move."

In this sense, the gnubg method is biased against playing styles that tend to lead to more forced decisions. Those are more successful in the long run than the gnubg method predicts.

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