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BGonline.org Forums
On second thought...
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Re: A few poker hands... (Chuck Bower)
Date: Monday, 9 April 2007, at 1:39 p.m.
(And I haven't read Stick's or your comments yet.)
On the second hand my action was amateurish. (I did forget who was in front of whom, but that's only a small part of my bad decision.)
Let's put opp on a hand (which is required if I'm ever going to get out of the local garage game). But first:
What does opp think you have? Given your earlier betting, there aren't many hands -- high pair or trips are the most likely candidates.
KQ: ok, if you knew this was it you would fold.
AK: I call this a semi-bluff. More later.
AQ: A semi-bluff with a double-ended straight draw. But you did say this opp would raise with a draw (even into a raise?!).
Q8 or 87: Possible...
AA, KK: probably would have re-raised pre-flop.
JJ, TT: ditto top pairs' comment.
JT, T9, J9: possible.
small pairs: don't think this is consistent with raise.
bluff: possible, including the above semi-bluffs. H-B (and Stick will rip me for quoting them :) say typically give a 10-20% chance that opp is bluffing, at least if it's a one-on-one situation (as here this has become).
So you're beating the bluffs, the two-pairs, and the straight draws. If you push, opp needs about 1/3 chances, which means he can't (legitimately) call holding just the Q. Probably calls with two pair. If you're behind (of opp's straight) you'll need to fill the house or 4th of kind: 8/47 outs. If opp has trips you have only the two 9's to win the hand....
Right now there's about 50% chance you have the better hand. If that's right then you're at least going to call. Since you're out of position (a fact I messed up yesterday) you don't gain a lot by simply calling. I think opp is pot-committed so if you raise you should push. That will gain if opp is on a straight draw.
All-in.
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