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Rollouts

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 13 June 2009, at 5:53 p.m.

In Response To: trick question -- gotcha! (Chuck Bower)

The score (after 0 games) is: white 0, blue 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 4: blue to play 21

white	141
blue	135
Position ID: uG0HABxsm6IBDA Match ID: cAnlAAAAAAAA

• blue moves 9/7 8/7

Alert: missed double ( -0.1360)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5212	(Money: +0.5164)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8739
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1261
3.	No double	+0.7379	-0.1360
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6983 0.1997 0.0082 - 0.3017 0.0842 0.0038 +0.5212 +0.7379 Standard error 0.0006 0.0008 0.0004 - 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0018 0.0041 Player white owns 2-cube 0.7055 0.1964 0.0097 - 0.2945 0.0799 0.0076 +1.1049 +0.8739 Standard error 0.0009 0.0013 0.0005 - 0.0009 0.0008 0.0009 0.0048 0.0066
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4689 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817661120 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	9/7 8/7	+0.8710
			0.7315 0.2098 0.0080 - 0.2685 0.0701 0.0034 +0.6147 +0.8710 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0008 0.0019
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			16814 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817661120 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	12/10 9/8	+0.8604 ( -0.0106)
			0.7234 0.2086 0.0076 - 0.2766 0.0760 0.0033 +0.5900 +0.8604 0.0003 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0009 0.0020
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			14802 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817661120 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/11 9/8	+0.8067 ( -0.0643)
			0.7149 0.2059 0.0061 - 0.2851 0.0791 0.0034 +0.5633 +0.8067 0.0017 0.0021 0.0008 - 0.0017 0.0013 0.0002 0.0045 0.0102
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			432 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 817661120 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	0	13/12 8/6	+0.3570 ( -0.5140)
			0.5905 0.1727 0.0057 - 0.4095 0.1018 0.0045
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
	5	0	12/11 8/6	+0.3357 ( -0.5353)
			0.5852 0.1728 0.0059 - 0.4148 0.1065 0.0048
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Messages In This Thread

• a backgammon problem
  Chuck Bower -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 5:46 p.m.
  • a backgammon problem
    Keene -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 6:04 p.m.
    • a backgammon problem
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 6:59 p.m.
      • a backgammon problem
        Keene -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:06 p.m.
        • a backgammon problem
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:15 p.m.
          • a backgammon problem
            David -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:37 p.m.
        • a backgammon problem
          adambulldog -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 8:10 p.m.
          • a backgammon problem
            Keene -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 8:45 p.m.
            • a backgammon problem
              adambulldog -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 9:05 p.m.
              • a backgammon problem
                Keene -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 9:33 p.m.
      • a backgammon problem
        Rich Munitz -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:18 p.m.
        • a backgammon problem
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:22 p.m.
      • a backgammon problem
        Michael Petch -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:46 p.m.
        • a backgammon problem
          Keene -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:50 p.m.
  • a backgammon problem
    pontiac -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 6:33 p.m.
  • a backgammon problem
    Bill Riles -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 6:37 p.m.
  • a backgammon problem
    Michael Petch -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 6:39 p.m.
  • a backgammon problem
    Rich Munitz -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 6:55 p.m.
  • a backgammon problem
    Barry Silliman -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:18 p.m.
    • a backgammon problem
      Vadim Musaelyan -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 7:23 p.m.
  • a backgammon problem
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 12 June 2009, at 8:20 p.m.
  • trick question -- gotcha!
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 13 June 2009, at 5:50 p.m.
    • Rollouts
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 13 June 2009, at 5:53 p.m.