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LA Super32 semis recube to 8

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:59 a.m.

In Response To: LA Super32 semis recube to 8 (Jason Lee)

What's your (re)doubling window? If you're going to win, doubling takes you from 43.2% to 74.5%. If you're going to lose, doubling takes you from 3.8% to zilch. So risk 3.8 to gain 31.3 means doubling window opens at 3.8/35.1 or 10.8%. Neil passes for 56.8%, takes and wins for 100%, takes and loses for 25.5%. So drop/take line is at 31.3/74.5 or 31.5/75 which is 42%.

Window is thus 11% < W < 58%.

Can you miss your market? 6-6 followed by nothing much looks like an MM to me.

What's your CGWC here? I get a modified Ward count of 46 - 61.5 but bigger number is on roll. Take off 8 (your average roll) and it's 46 - 53.5 with Neil on roll. Kleinman that to get 132/95.5 which looks just under 1.4 (just under 80% wins for Neil). Definitely in the window.

Double.

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